2021 S&P 500 EPS Still Above 2019

2021 S&P 500 EPS Still Above 2019


So far anyway, although there is another 4 weeks until Q2 ’20 earnings start, here is how 2019 – 2021 EPS look: 

  • 2021: $164.00 (current estimate for full-year 2021 S&P 500 EPS)
  • 2020: $125.48 (current estimate)
  • 2019: $162.93 – actual

I’ve written the last 6 weeks that I felt it was important that the S&P 500  estimate for 2021 remain above 2019’s actual $162.93.

So far, that is the case.

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Here is the “rate of change” for the forward S&P 500 earnings curve:

What’s interesting about this week’s data is not only do the revisions continue to be “less negative” but both the 2020 and 2020 annual estimates saw a positive revision for the week.

I haven’t seen that in about 3 months.

Averaging the 2020 and 2021 S&P 500  full-year EPS estimates, the 4% average growth rate has been constant now for 14 straight weeks.

The 23x multiple for 2020 doesn’t look so great for the S&P 500, but the 17x multiple for 2021 looks better.

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Summary/Conclusion

The revision data for the S&P 500 continues to be a plus for the market, although it’s hard to comprehend the price action of +10% for the S&P 500’s return in the last 3 weeks being all due to earnings. A lot of positives this week, with the Treasury yield curve action, the action in banks and airlines, etc.

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Brian Gilmartin


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